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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to JAX 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.81 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model