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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 4-J.Lambo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP