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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to JAX 30, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.83 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP