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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to JAX 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -3.63 EP
KICK -2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.00 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.63 EP
PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP