4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to NO 14, Center-46-M.Orzech. 11-D.Harris to NO 17 for 3 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.70 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model