Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 27-C.Jones to BAL 31 for 8 yards (57-G.Pratt). PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.28 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model