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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP