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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(13:39) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model