Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(10:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model