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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 47

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to CIN 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model