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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model