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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to BAL 08, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model