Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 33 for 10 yards (29-R.Smith). FUMBLES (29-R.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-51-K.Minter at CAR 37. 51-K.Minter to CAR 37 for no gain (28-R.Gaulden).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model