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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 1

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 76-B.Witzmann reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model