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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 37 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 23 for 7 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk; 44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP