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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 – Carolina Panthers 37

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans to CAR 12 for 5 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model