Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(11:41) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 31 for 5 yards (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model