Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

(12:03) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to CAR 25, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.20 EP
51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model