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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP