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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:26) (Punt formation) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CAR 33, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP