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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.09 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model