Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to TB 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 85-B.Wilson to TB 25 for 2 yards (39-R.Bonnafon). PENALTY on TB-39-A.Adams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model