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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model