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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Run formation) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left end ran ob at TB 15 for 6 yards (31-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.74 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model