Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 33. 11-D.Harris to NO 36 for 3 yards (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.91 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model