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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.08 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP