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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to TB 22 for no gain (94-C.Nassib; 36-M.Stewart). Pass -3, YAC 3

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.30 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP