Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 31

(9:32) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-98-A.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model