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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to TB 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-B.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +3.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model