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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to NO 25 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 11, YAC 3

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -3.52 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model