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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -3.38 EP
KICK -2.02 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model