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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 24

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 9-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model