4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 17-A.Jeffery [46-N.Hewitt].

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model