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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 61

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PHI 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model