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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 47

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 8-L.Falk pass short right intended for 26-L.Bell INTERCEPTED by 47-N.Gerry [55-B.Graham] at PHI 49. 47-N.Gerry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.70 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model