Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 83

New York Jets 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to PHI 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at PHI 39 for 9 yards (47-A.McClellan). PENALTY on PHI-37-R.Lewis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.80 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model