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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 1-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to NYJ 18, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP