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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 91

New York Jets 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PHI 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-N.Agholor to PHI 46 for 4 yards (23-A.Maulet).

The Three Options

GO -3.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 91, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 48, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model