Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYJ 21, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 33 for 12 yards (88-D.Goedert). PENALTY on NYJ-88-T.Montgomery, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model