Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 30-C.Clement MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-25-T.Cannon at PHI 20. 25-T.Cannon to PHI 19 for 1 yard (50-D.Riley; 37-R.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model