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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 13 for 4 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 25-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model