4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to NYJ 40 for no gain (92-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.49 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model