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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 92

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to PHI 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 43-D.Sproles to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (15-J.Bellamy; 84-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 92, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 50, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model