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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to NYJ 4, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model