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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYJ 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.22 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP