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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 37

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 9-S.Ficken 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP