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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 88

New England Patriots 33 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to WAS 40, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model