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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 72

New England Patriots 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to WAS 33, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 30, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model