Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 79

Washington Commanders 7 – New England Patriots 26

(13:35) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NE 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 42 for 18 yards (51-S.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.94 EP
76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model