Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 69

New England Patriots 26 – Washington Commanders 7

(1:28) 7-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to WAS 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.18 EP
67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model